CropGPT - Coffee - Week 18
The weekly report on the global Coffee market for week 18. Brought to you by CropGPT
This episode provides a structured overview of regional production trends, pricing frameworks, and trade developments shaping the global coffee market.
- Colombia: The National Federation of Coffee Growers has introduced a standardized purchasing system that anchors grower payments to the New York Stock Exchange price, adjusted by exchange rates and quality differentials. Internal reference prices reached COP 404,000 per 125 kg of dry parchment, while international quotes stood at $384.65/lb. Quality-based penalties range from COP 20,000 to 88,000, reinforcing quality incentives in domestic programs.
- Brazil: Coffee production for 2025/26 is forecast at 51.8 million 60-kg bags, reflecting a 4.4% decline year-on-year. Arabica output is expected to drop by 12.4%, partially offset by a 17.2% rise in Robusta production. Export volumes were down 26% by March, but high international prices have kept export revenues strong. Mechanization and technological advancement, particularly in Minas Gerais, continue to support Brazil's productivity and competitive edge.
- Vietnam & Southeast Asia: Vietnam recorded a 19% year-on-year decline in coffee export volumes, attributed to weather-related supply issues. However, export values rose 3.7% due to firmer global pricing. Indonesian output also suffered from climatic challenges. Ethiopia faced regulatory hurdles in the EU market, impacting its export potential.
- Global Context: The coffee sector is navigating multiple structural shifts. U.S. tariffs on imports from Brazil, Vietnam, and Indonesia are reshaping trade routes. Climate volatility, especially El Niño effects, continues to impact Central American and Colombian output. Currency fluctuations and speculative trading have contributed to price instability, often deviating from traditional supply-demand fundamentals.
